As the United States ramps up tariffs on Chinese imports, Chinese e-commerce giants like Temu and Shein could pivot their focus to markets such as New Zealand. The recent decision by President Donald Trump to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to as much as 145% has major implications for global trade patterns.
Gareth Kiernan, chief forecaster at Infometrics, noted that the steep increase in tariffs may leave Chinese exporters with surplus inventory that’s now too expensive for American consumers. As a result, companies might turn to other markets to offload goods, potentially at discounted prices, in order to keep their manufacturing operations running smoothly.
“This situation could lead to increased activity on platforms like Temu, as Chinese businesses seek alternative destinations to sell their stock,” Kiernan explained. While similar shifts could occur in products from other regions, the current pause on additional tariffs beyond 10% for the next three months may delay broader changes for now.
Marketing specialist Bodo Lang from Massey University believes that China will likely intensify trade relations with countries outside the US. While firms like Temu and Shein set their own pricing, Lang pointed out that the Chinese government could use diplomatic efforts and favorable trade agreements to bolster exports elsewhere.
Lang suggested a two-pronged approach from these companies: cost-based promotions targeting US customers to absorb the impact of tariffs, and value-added promotions in non-US markets like New Zealand. These might include free gifts, loyalty rewards, bundle deals, or exclusive offers.
“This strategy is likely to resonate, especially as global consumers become more conscious of trade tensions,” Lang said. “New Zealand shoppers may be particularly receptive if Chinese retailers offer compelling deals, especially given recent skepticism toward the US.”
Chinese media, such as The People’s Daily, has reported that regional governments in China may assist exporters in finding new buyers in markets unaffected by US policies.
Retail analyst Chris Wilkinson from First Retail Group agreed that Chinese e-commerce firms will likely increase their efforts in markets like New Zealand. “Temu and similar platforms are highly agile and aggressive in their marketing tactics,” he said. “Although growth has leveled off somewhat, we could see new variations of direct-to-consumer models emerge as these brands look to evolve.”
A recent Tearfund report estimated that around one million New Zealanders have made purchases from Temu, with 14% having shopped at Shein. This signals a strong local appetite for Chinese e-commerce offerings.
However, Lang also emphasized that New Zealand’s relatively small population—compared to the world’s largest consumer markets—means it’s unlikely to be a top priority for Chinese retailers in the immediate future. “With dozens of countries surpassing New Zealand in population size, large-scale investment here may be limited in the short term,” he noted.
Still, as trade dynamics shift, consumers in New Zealand may benefit from increased competition and promotions as Chinese retailers adjust their global strategies.
