Australia’s fertility rate has continued its downward spiral in 2024, with major cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane seeing some of the sharpest declines. According to early findings from KPMG based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, these urban centers are leading a national “baby bust,” largely due to ongoing cost-of-living pressures.
The nation’s overall fertility rate remained stagnant at 1.51 children per woman—slightly below 2023’s figure of 1.5 and significantly lower than the 1.8 recorded a decade ago. In contrast, outer suburbs and regional areas are increasingly driving what little population growth remains, with more children per capita being born outside city centers.
Professor Amanda Davies, a demographer from the University of Western Australia, said many young families are choosing to delay or forgo parenthood altogether due to economic uncertainty and a worsening housing crisis. “People feel they need financial stability and secure housing before having kids,” she explained. “But with the current housing market, that’s becoming harder to achieve.”
Melbourne recorded the lowest fertility rate among the capitals at 1.4—down from 1.71 in 2014—while Sydney and Brisbane also saw noticeable declines. Perth, however, bucked the trend. Thanks to a more favorable housing market and stronger job growth, it experienced a modest rebound in birthrates, reaching its highest point since 2021.
The divide between urban and regional fertility patterns appears to be growing. Economist Professor Ashton De Silva from RMIT noted that high housing costs are pushing families toward the fringes of major cities or into regional areas. “Children are becoming a financial luxury,” he said. “We’re likely to see continued population shifts away from inner-city living.”
KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley attributed some of the regional fertility gains to post-pandemic lifestyle changes, including remote work opportunities and migration out of expensive cities like Sydney and Melbourne to more affordable hubs such as Geelong and Newcastle. These shifts have not only improved regional birth numbers but are also helping offset some of the broader national decline.
Despite these regional upticks, experts warn that the national fertility rate remains well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Without a significant turnaround, this trend could lead to a shrinking population of locally born Australians, increasing dependence on migration to meet workforce demands.
Davies emphasized that without addressing the underlying causes—particularly housing and cost-of-living pressures—the fertility rate is unlikely to recover. “We expect further declines in the coming years unless real economic relief is provided for young families,” she said.
